CAA, NRC and NPR in India.

CAA determines the rules of citizenship in India. NRC is the list of Indian citizens. NPR is the list of people residing in India.

India intends to create a through NPR in the near future. In this exercise, a government official will ask you

• Name
• Gender
• Date of birth
• Place of birth
• Parent citizenship
• PAN number
• Aadhar number
• Mobile number
• Place of stay
• etc.

NPR will track the population of India. The government can decide whether the person is a citizen of India, based on the rules in CAA. Thus NPR will lead to NRC.

This exercise has some benefits. Many nations keep track of its citizens e.g. the USA, Canada, etc. So India keeping track of its citizens is nothing new. Government benefits are normally only for citizens. Also, people from nearby countries should not be able to just enter India. Many governments try to restrict illegal immigration.

So then why are people opposed to this exercise?
People opposed to CAA say that it is not secular. That is correct. Hindu immigrants from Muslim countries will get citizenship in India more easily than a Muslim immigrant from a Muslim country. But, in my opinion, this is not a major problem. Muslim countries give preference to Muslims. So a Hindu majority country can give preference to Hindus.

The actual problems with this exercise are:

• Showing your documents to a government official is problematic in India. Most Indian bureaucrats demand a bribe to do their work. So genuine citizens, who have all documents, will face harassment.
• People who have lost their documents will have to stand in lines, bribe officials, etc to first get their documents in order. Only then can they become citizens of India. These people will face additional harassment.
• Lakhs of people in India are illiterate. They have minimal or no documents. Do they even have the capability to get the documents and show them to a government official?

NPR (which will lead to NRC based on CAA) will cause problems for everyone in the country. The middle-class and rich will face little harassment because they will arrange documents and pay bribes. The suffering of poor will increase in NPR. So, we have many people, across religions, opposing NPR. Opposition political parties are fanning this unrest to gain votes.

In this environment, the Indian government needs to make the registration process bribe-free and hassle-free e.g.

• The government can ask the people of India to register electronically. If there is no human interaction, then bribes are minimized.
• Instead of asking multiple documents, the government should only ask for one document e.g. PAN card or Aadhar card or birth certificate or school/college leaving certificate or employment certificate or bank account passbook or any document that shows that you are residing in India for many years. Fewer the documents, lesser the hassle.

Then, more people will likely comply with NPR.

Four shocks of Modi

Modi has given the Indian economy four big shocks; thus causing a slowdown.

1. Demonetization: It was supposed to eliminate black money. In India, black money is held mostly in real estate, gold, and dollars. Only a small percentage of black money is held in cash.
2. GST: No other country has GST of this complex nature with such high taxes. The overheads are huge. It benefits accountants, at the cost of legitimate businesses.
3. IBC: It was supposed to clear NPAs of banks, but the process was clogged with delays and lawsuits. So no creditor wants to use it.
4. RERA for real estate was supposed to safeguard the buyer, but instead, it caused a slow down of the entire sector. Now lawsuits take years to resolve.

The Indian economy cannot be revived in the short run. By taking appropriate measures, the Indian economy can be put on a growth path, in the long run.

Cause of Rapes

Nitish Kumar says that porn sites are responsible for rapes in India. By the same logic:

• Crime serials are responsible for thefts.
• Violent movies are responsible for murders.
• Playgrounds are responsible for a lack of education.
• Shops responsible for credit card debts
• Share market responsible for suicides due to financial loss.
• Banks responsible for the poor economy; people save instead of spending.

If porn sites are responsible for rapes, then why are rapes so few in countries like Singapore? Even in Singapore, people have access to porn sites!

The key question is, whether a rapist is born or society makes someone a rapist. In most criminal cases:

1. The criminal had a bad childhood e.g. The parent/care-giver of the child used to beat the child ruthlessly.
2. The criminal started with small crimes e.g. stealing from a store. He got away with these crimes. In fact, he received praise for his daring. There was no one to correct the behavior of the child.
3. The criminal saw/hear others getting away with big crimes. So the size of his crime increased.

Politicians are trying to pass the blame to porn sites. If rape (and in general crime) has to be reduced, then

1. It should be a criminal offense to shout or hit a child of less than 5 year
2. A child of less than 15 years can only be hit for the purpose of self-defense; Any other cause, should be a criminal offence.
3. Justice should not take years. In a few months, punishment should be meted out for crimes taken.

Politicians don't want to punish parents, because children don't vote. Politicians don't want swift justice, because most politicians are criminals.

Why Indians invest in Gold/Silver?

In India, inflation runs at about 10% (in terms of the M3 money supply). Banks give an interest of about 7%. From this interest, Tax is deducted. So effectively people get about 5% interest if they save in a bank deposit or something equivalent.

Real estate in India went into a bubble territory a few years ago, because of government policies. The overheads and taxes in buying/selling property are high. So the number of people investing in real estate has greatly declined.

Most stocks are overvalued. Government agencies like LIC buy index stock and so the government can paint a rosy picture of the economy. But, sooner or later, the true value gets reflected in stock price.

When Indians invest in gold/silver, their savings are protected from inflation theft. If they use cash, then even taxes are avoided. The chart below shows the average rise/fall in the price of gold/silver for last few years.

What just happened in Maharashtra politics?

Ajit Pawar breaks NCP party and supports BJP. Does Sharad Pawar, who leads NCP, support this decision?

Never believe what a politician says; look at what a politician does. If BJP supports Sharad Pawar by going slow on cases against Sharad Pawar and projects that cause financial loss to Sharad Pawar; then it implies that Sharad Pawar supports BJP. If BJP continues to harass Sharad Pawar, that means that Ajit Pawar has really broken away from Sharad Pawar to join BJP.

Mess in India's telecom sector

India's telecom sector has 3 major players i.e. Jio, Airtel and Vodafone Idea.

• Jio received a spectrum at a much lower price than Airtel and Vodafone Idea. So Jio has a strong balance sheet.
• Airtel needs some help. If it pays all its dues, it will be left with no cash to run the company. So Airtel will collapse if the government insists all dues be paid immediately. However, if Airtel is given time to repay its dues and banks are asked to continue lending to Airtel, then Airtel will survive.
• Vodafone Idea has the biggest problem. Its liabilities exceed its assets. The parent company has refused to pump in more cash. So now, unless it receives some help from the Indian government, it will likely liquidate. The government will have to forgive some of the taxes recoverable and ask banks to infuse more cash at a concessional rate.

But, how did we come to this stage? The key reasons why Indian telecom failed are

1. TRAI interference with the Telecom sector. In other countries, the competition determines the prices. In India, TRAI forces telecom companies to charge fixed rates for IUC, number portability, etc. This causes a huge loss to telecom companies. The role of TRAI should be advisory only. TRAI cannot levy penalties on any telecom company. The competition will determine prices in India, like in other countries.
2. Jio was given spectrum at a lower rate than others, in a very questionable manner. The government should give concessions to competitors of Jio to make up their loss. Also, the government should hire tax experts and ensure JIO is paying all taxes due to it. e.g.
   • JioPhone is sold without paying all taxes because on paper it is "lent" for 3 years. But, in today's world, which mobile lasts more than 3 years. So JioPhone is sold without paying all taxes due.
   • Jio Setup box is also lent for many years for home internet access. If it is "sold", then more taxes will have to be paid by Jio to Government.
   The Indian government should stop favoring Reliance Jio over Airtel and Vodafone Idea.

Protect yourself from Bank failure in India

PMC bank was put under restrictions this week, by RBI, because of its huge NPAs. Many other banks also have significant NPAs. Other banks can also face similar restrictions. So what should a typical depositor do in India?

• Keep maximum Rs 1 lakh in one bank.
• If you have 3 lakhs, then open account in 3 banks and keep 1 lakh in each.
• Keep enough cash with yourself for a few weeks in event of some bank closure.
• Do not keep many lakhs of rupees in savings accounts of banks. Keep the remaining in Gold or silver. These precious metals have been money for many centuries.
• If your society or business needs to keep crores of rupees in current account of bank, then use the biggest bank you can find e.g. HDFC, SBI, etc.

The above steps will guard you against most problems of Indian banking sector.

A Warning about coming economic downturn.

A depression is coming. Governments will pump currency to counter it. So we will end up with Stagflation i.e. low growth and high inflation.

In the next few months, expect

• Gold and Silver have increased by more than 30% from 1-Jan-2019 to date (29-Aug-2019). Expect them go much higher in coming months.
• Stock market have been weak in 2019. Expect them to remain weak.
• Rupee has been falling in 2019. Expect its fall to continue.
• Petrol/Diesel prices will rise in coming months because Rupee will fall in value.
• India will increase tensions with Pakistan. Politicians will blame the economic problmes on war tensions.
• Indian government will impose tax on cash withdrawals to control inflation. It may even ban the 2000 rupee note.

To protect themselves, Indians should

• Exit stock market and mutual funds.
• Buy Gold/Silver.
• Withdraw cash from bank accounts. Keep most cash in 500 or 100 rupee notes.

How to protect your privacy in India?

India will link Aadhar with social media sites. This will make it difficult for citizens to criticize government policies e.g. corruption in ruling government, unnecessary government violence in sensitive areas like Kashmir, failing economic policies, etc. So here I will recommend some solution to help people retain their privacy.

The solution is to have two identities

1. One for areas where even if Government pries, there is no significant harm.
2. One for areas that we want to hide from Government.

For areas that don’t need privacy, you will have to sumbit Aadhar number. Here,

• Use popular browsers like Chrome, Firefox, etc.
• Use popular sites like Facebook, Twitter, Gmail, etc.
• Use popular messaging apps like WhatsApp, Messenger, iMessage, etc.

For areas that need privacy, do not submit Aadhar number. The website will think that you are outside India, and so will not insist on the same. Here,

• Never use browsers like Chrome, Firefox, etc. Use browsers like Tor Browser or Opera with VPN. These browsers don’t directly communicate with websites. They use one or more temporary hops in-between us and web site. So the website cannot find the originating country.
• Use a different identity while using popular sitesi.e. different Facebook account, different Twitter account, different Gmail mail id, etc. Use these identities only from a safe browser like Tor browser or Opera with VPN.
• Never use messaging apps like WhatsApp, Messenger or iMessage. Use private messaging service like Bleep. These services send/receive messages in encrypted format; they don’t store unencrypted messages on any server.

Of course, no method is fool proof. Technology keeps evolving. New techniques will emerge in next few years. But as of now, the above process can offer significant protection, to people, at low cost.

An Indian visitor's impression of Singapore

Difference between traveling to Singapore and traveling to India.

1. After landing in Singapore, when you go to collect your luggage; if you are late, you will find your bag stacked at one end. So you can pick it up immediately. Singapore shows care for its visitors.
   After landing in India, when you go to collect your luggage; usually luggage is still to come, even if you are late. When the luggage comes, it keeps moving on the conveyor belt. No airport personnel picks up the luggage and stacks it in one corner for your convenience. India shows thoughtlessness for its visitors.
2. After landing in Singapore, if you have nothing to declare; you just walk out of the Green channel. Singapore government shows faith in its people.
   After landing in India, even if you have nothing to declare; you have to put your bags in X-ray in the Green channel. Indian government shows distrust in its people.
3. After landing in Singapore, you have multiple options to go to city centre e.g. Metro, Bus for passengers only, Taxi, etc. All these modes of transport are easily accessible. The road to city centre is un-congested. Singapore displays its cleanliness.
   After landing in India, you have no metro, no bus for passengers only; there is auto rickshaw, Taxi, etc. These modes of transport are not easily accessible. The road to city centre is congested. India shows inefficiency.
4. While leaving Singapore, there is no manual immigration clearance for visitors. You put in your passport and the machine does a fingerprint scan; the doors open automatically for you to leave Singapore. Singapore shows efficiency.
   While leaving India, a government official looks at your passport, boarding pass, etc. Then your photo is taken; then the official decides to manually signal the door to be open so that you can leave India. India displays its bureaucracy.
5. In Singapore, there are no hawkers selling on street; throwing garbage on street. The roads are clean. Traffic laws are obeyed. There is hardly ever a traffic jam. Every railway/metro station has escalators. Singapore shows commitment to productivity.
   In India, there are hawkers in almost every street of city. Garbage lies on every street. The roads are dirty. Traffic laws are regularly violated. Traffic jams are common. Most railway stations have many staircases. India is unproductive.
6. Before boarding plane, in the waiting area, at Singapore airport many seats have two usb ports and one electrical socket. This means the passenger can charge two mobiles and a laptop at the same time. The electrical socket is international; so no adapter is needed even if the passenger has UK, USA or Indian plug. Singapore airport is one of best.
   In waiting area, at Indian airport, the seats don't have usb ports or electrical sockets. Some electrical sockets are present in some corner, but only Indian plug can fit into them, if they are working. Indian airports are one of the worst.
7. At Singapore airport, there is no frisking of passengers; the passengers don't have to remove their belt, shoes, etc. Yet Singapore crime rate is low.
   At Indian airport, there is physical frisking of passengers; the passengers have to remove their belt, shoes, etc. Yet Indian crime rate is high.
8. At Singapore Changi airport, the passenger gets high speed WiFi internet on multiple devices (i.e. multiple mobiles and laptops) simultaneously for 24 hours. Singapore shows its abundance.
   At Indian airport, the passenger gets low speed WiFi internet on single device (i.e. one mobile or laptop) for 45 minutes only. India shows its miserliness to every visitor as soon as he enters India.
9. Single use plastic bags, bottles, etc are convenient for people. So Singapore has set up an elaborate system, to dispose off these plastics, without causing environmental problems. Singapore cares about the convenience of its people.
   India has banned the use to single use plastic; hefty fines are imposed on defaulters. India has no system to dispose these plastics, without causing environmental harm. India doesn't care about the convenience of its people.

Hence, Singapore is a first-world developed country; and India is a third-world under-developed country.

2019 budget in India

A good budget

• Reduces taxes.
• Reduces regulations.
• Reduces subsidies.
• Reduces expenses by privatization; reduces deficit.

Some parts of this 2019 budget are good; some parts of the bad.

The good parts of the budget are:

• Reduction in custom duty for some defence equipment,
• GST process slightly simplified with one monthly return.
• Tax rate slightly reduced for small companies.
• Disinvestment. It will not benefit much because the government retains control over PSU

The bad parts of the budget are:

• Increase in customs duty on gold, books, TVs, ACs, CCTVs, etc.
• Additional tax on fuel.
• Large cash withdrawals to be taxed.
• Income tax on rich individuals increased
• New tax on share buybacks.
• Tax rebate for affordable housing will make housing costlier.
• Tax rebate on loans for EVs will cause disproportionate and unnecessary investment in EVs. This investment would have been better utilized elsewhere.
• PSU banks will be provided with Rs 70,000 crores. PSU are already bankrupt. Why waste more money on them?
• Instead of reducing borrowing, India will now borrow in foreign currency, rather than domestically.

Overall the budget does little. It is basically a lost opportunity to make any significant improvements.

Why NEP will fail?

Currently in India, education for child consists of

1. Junior Kg, Senior Kg in pre-school beginning from age of 4 years.
2. Standard 1 to 10 in school.
3. Standard 11 and 12 in college.

The NEP (New education policy) will consist of

1. Three years of pre-primary beginning from age of 3 years.
2. Grades 1 to 12.

NEP will fail for the same reason the existing education policy has failed. In the existing education policy, the government decides on the syllabus, decides the wages of teachers, decides the reservation among students & teachers, conducts exam, decides fees and awards degrees. The government is inefficient, corrupt and slow to change.

The only way education can be improved in India is to get the government out of the way. Private companies will provide education for profit. They will compete with each other on the basis of syllabus, teaching quality, infrastructure, fees, etc. The best value provider will succeed.

Government doesn't decide whether I purchase Nokia mobile or Samsung. There is competition among mobile makers. This ensures good quality and low prices. The same rule should be applicable for education. The only reason this rule is not applied to education is "Corruption". Many politicians and donors to political parties have colleges/schools. These charge huge fees for bad education. These institution will perish in free market.

What to expect in Modi's second term?

Based upon actions taken during Modi's first term, Modi is expected to take following actions during his second term:

• Keep inflation under control. Real estate will not be a good investment.
• Move towards cashless society. Cash withdrawals will be taxed or made cumbersome. Cash transactions will be viewed with suspicion.
• Make gold/silver buying/selling more difficult. Encourage people to give up their gold for loans/bonds.
• Put Hinduism and Nationalism in school syllabus and degrade them further.
• Criticizing government will be looked up as anti-national and pro-Pakistan. Freedom of speech for individuals and press will be curbed.
• Modi and Amit Shah will effectively rule India. The voice of all others (including BJP MLAs) will be stifled

During Modi's first term (2014 to 2019), Modi demonetized ₹1,000 and ₹500 currency notes. During Modi's second term (2019 to 2024), Modi can do following dramatic steps:

• Ban ₹2,000 note overnight. This time there will be no exchange. All ₹2,000 will be declared scrap.
• Confiscate gold in bank lockers.
• Confiscate bank deposits above a certain limit e.g. ₹10 lakhs.
• Devalue the Indian rupee.

The official reasons for above steps will be "helping the poor". The real reason will be much different.
To protect themselves from Modi's above disastrous steps, people can:

• Reduce ₹2,000 currency note at hand.
• Move gold from bank locker to private locker.
• Reduce the amount saved in bank deposits.
• Protect themselves from devaluation by purchasing physical assets.

The coming Indian elections

BJP has done election alliance with nearly 35 other parties like AIADMK, Shiv Sena, etc.
Congress has done election alliance with a large number of parties like NCP, RJD, etc.
Some parties (like are Trinamool, SP, BSP, AAP, etc) are strong within their state. They don't have any election alliance with BJP or Congress. These parties will join BJP alliance or Congress alliance, after the elections are over.

So the coming election will essentially a three way fight between BJP alliance, Congress alliance and a Third front.
In the coming election, neither the BJP alliance, nor the Congress alliance is expected to get a clean majority. So the Third front is expected to play the deciding role. This is bad for India because it means that

• No major decisions will be taken.
• The Third Front parties will extract their pound of flesh (bribes).
• Corruption will increase.

BJP is advertising the coming elections as Modi vs "who else?"; but these are just slogans (Chunavi Jumlas). BJP can't play the economy card in this election because De-monetization and GST have hurt the economy. So BJP is going to play the Nationalism card. I expect the tensions, with Pakistan, to increase as election date approaches near. We may even have one or more terror attacks, to ignite the fire of nationalism, which will help BJP to grab more votes.

India wants tensions with Pakistan to rise!

Army people are not great, they are just normal

Politicians want to create the impression that the died army men are great because it benefits them in many ways

• They get to spend more on security. This will lead to more kickbacks.
• They get to increase taxes under the guise of national security.
• Anyone opposing the politicians is branded as as traitor; so it suppresses mutiny.

Who joins the army? Does the normal army person has so great a love for the country, that he is willing to sacrifice his life? The answer is No.

• Most people who join the army are jobless.
• They don't have a good family business or family income.
• They are relatively uneducated or less educated.
• They know that most people who join the army come back alive i.e. more than 99%.
So army is the best job that they can find.

A person, who works a normal office job or business in private (not government) sector, does more for his country than most army man, because his taxes pay for the salary and equipment of army men.

Hardik Pandya's truth annoys hypocrites

Hardik Pandya said,

• I like to watch and observe how they (women in nightclub) move. I'm little from the Black side so I need to see how they move.
• When I lost my virginity, I came home and said, "I did it today”.
• At a party my parents asked me, "Which are your women?" I said, "This, this, this"; pointing out women and they were like proud of their son."
• When me and my team mates hit on the same woman, it is not upto the woman to decide whom she will date; It is about talent. The more talented one gets to take the woman.

These statements of Hardik have annoyed many women. Why? Hardik has not raped anyone. The women are voluntarily dating Hardik. So Hardik has not committed any crime.
Hardik statements exposes the low morals many women have today and therefore they are annoyed with him. Hardik is a womanizer, but he has the courage to speak the truth. The people criticizing Hardik don't have the courage to speak the truth; they are trying to hide their low morals by criticizing/punishing Hardik.

How to bring a government to its knees peacefully?

The answer is: Withdraw all your currency from bank.

Banks don't have currency for all their deposits. If every saver asks for his deposit to be refunded, then the bank will have to shut down. The economy will come to a halt. The government will collapse.

This technique is being used by "Yellow vest" protestors in France. The main stream media is not reporting this peaceful revolution occurring in France. Google search is hiding results about it. Use search engine duckduckgo to find more about this movement.