What just happened in Maharashtra politics?

Ajit Pawar breaks NCP party and supports BJP. Does Sharad Pawar, who leads NCP, support this decision?

Never believe what a politician says; look at what a politician does. If BJP supports Sharad Pawar by going slow on cases against Sharad Pawar and projects that cause financial loss to Sharad Pawar; then it implies that Sharad Pawar supports BJP. If BJP continues to harass Sharad Pawar, that means that Ajit Pawar has really broken away from Sharad Pawar to join BJP.

Mess in India's telecom sector

India's telecom sector has 3 major players i.e. Jio, Airtel and Vodafone Idea.

• Jio received a spectrum at a much lower price than Airtel and Vodafone Idea. So Jio has a strong balance sheet.
• Airtel needs some help. If it pays all its dues, it will be left with no cash to run the company. So Airtel will collapse if the government insists all dues be paid immediately. However, if Airtel is given time to repay its dues and banks are asked to continue lending to Airtel, then Airtel will survive.
• Vodafone Idea has the biggest problem. Its liabilities exceed its assets. The parent company has refused to pump in more cash. So now, unless it receives some help from the Indian government, it will likely liquidate. The government will have to forgive some of the taxes recoverable and ask banks to infuse more cash at a concessional rate.

But, how did we come to this stage? The key reasons why Indian telecom failed are

1. TRAI interference with the Telecom sector. In other countries, the competition determines the prices. In India, TRAI forces telecom companies to charge fixed rates for IUC, number portability, etc. This causes a huge loss to telecom companies. The role of TRAI should be advisory only. TRAI cannot levy penalties on any telecom company. The competition will determine prices in India, like in other countries.
2. Jio was given spectrum at a lower rate than others, in a very questionable manner. The government should give concessions to competitors of Jio to make up their loss. Also, the government should hire tax experts and ensure JIO is paying all taxes due to it. e.g.
   • JioPhone is sold without paying all taxes because on paper it is "lent" for 3 years. But, in today's world, which mobile lasts more than 3 years. So JioPhone is sold without paying all taxes due.
   • Jio Setup box is also lent for many years for home internet access. If it is "sold", then more taxes will have to be paid by Jio to Government.
   The Indian government should stop favoring Reliance Jio over Airtel and Vodafone Idea.

Protect yourself from Bank failure in India

PMC bank was put under restrictions this week, by RBI, because of its huge NPAs. Many other banks also have significant NPAs. Other banks can also face similar restrictions. So what should a typical depositor do in India?

• Keep maximum Rs 1 lakh in one bank.
• If you have 3 lakhs, then open account in 3 banks and keep 1 lakh in each.
• Keep enough cash with yourself for a few weeks in event of some bank closure.
• Do not keep many lakhs of rupees in savings accounts of banks. Keep the remaining in Gold or silver. These precious metals have been money for many centuries.
• If your society or business needs to keep crores of rupees in current account of bank, then use the biggest bank you can find e.g. HDFC, SBI, etc.

The above steps will guard you against most problems of Indian banking sector.

A Warning about coming economic downturn.

A depression is coming. Governments will pump currency to counter it. So we will end up with Stagflation i.e. low growth and high inflation.

In the next few months, expect

• Gold and Silver have increased by more than 30% from 1-Jan-2019 to date (29-Aug-2019). Expect them go much higher in coming months.
• Stock market have been weak in 2019. Expect them to remain weak.
• Rupee has been falling in 2019. Expect its fall to continue.
• Petrol/Diesel prices will rise in coming months because Rupee will fall in value.
• India will increase tensions with Pakistan. Politicians will blame the economic problmes on war tensions.
• Indian government will impose tax on cash withdrawals to control inflation. It may even ban the 2000 rupee note.

To protect themselves, Indians should

• Exit stock market and mutual funds.
• Buy Gold/Silver.
• Withdraw cash from bank accounts. Keep most cash in 500 or 100 rupee notes.

How to protect your privacy in India?

India will link Aadhar with social media sites. This will make it difficult for citizens to criticize government policies e.g. corruption in ruling government, unnecessary government violence in sensitive areas like Kashmir, failing economic policies, etc. So here I will recommend some solution to help people retain their privacy.

The solution is to have two identities

1. One for areas where even if Government pries, there is no significant harm.
2. One for areas that we want to hide from Government.

For areas that don’t need privacy, you will have to sumbit Aadhar number. Here,

• Use popular browsers like Chrome, Firefox, etc.
• Use popular sites like Facebook, Twitter, Gmail, etc.
• Use popular messaging apps like WhatsApp, Messenger, iMessage, etc.

For areas that need privacy, do not submit Aadhar number. The website will think that you are outside India, and so will not insist on the same. Here,

• Never use browsers like Chrome, Firefox, etc. Use browsers like Tor Browser or Opera with VPN. These browsers don’t directly communicate with websites. They use one or more temporary hops in-between us and web site. So the website cannot find the originating country.
• Use a different identity while using popular sitesi.e. different Facebook account, different Twitter account, different Gmail mail id, etc. Use these identities only from a safe browser like Tor browser or Opera with VPN.
• Never use messaging apps like WhatsApp, Messenger or iMessage. Use private messaging service like Bleep. These services send/receive messages in encrypted format; they don’t store unencrypted messages on any server.

Of course, no method is fool proof. Technology keeps evolving. New techniques will emerge in next few years. But as of now, the above process can offer significant protection, to people, at low cost.

An Indian visitor's impression of Singapore

Difference between traveling to Singapore and traveling to India.

1. After landing in Singapore, when you go to collect your luggage; if you are late, you will find your bag stacked at one end. So you can pick it up immediately. Singapore shows care for its visitors.
   After landing in India, when you go to collect your luggage; usually luggage is still to come, even if you are late. When the luggage comes, it keeps moving on the conveyor belt. No airport personnel picks up the luggage and stacks it in one corner for your convenience. India shows thoughtlessness for its visitors.
2. After landing in Singapore, if you have nothing to declare; you just walk out of the Green channel. Singapore government shows faith in its people.
   After landing in India, even if you have nothing to declare; you have to put your bags in X-ray in the Green channel. Indian government shows distrust in its people.
3. After landing in Singapore, you have multiple options to go to city centre e.g. Metro, Bus for passengers only, Taxi, etc. All these modes of transport are easily accessible. The road to city centre is un-congested. Singapore displays its cleanliness.
   After landing in India, you have no metro, no bus for passengers only; there is auto rickshaw, Taxi, etc. These modes of transport are not easily accessible. The road to city centre is congested. India shows inefficiency.
4. While leaving Singapore, there is no manual immigration clearance for visitors. You put in your passport and the machine does a fingerprint scan; the doors open automatically for you to leave Singapore. Singapore shows efficiency.
   While leaving India, a government official looks at your passport, boarding pass, etc. Then your photo is taken; then the official decides to manually signal the door to be open so that you can leave India. India displays its bureaucracy.
5. In Singapore, there are no hawkers selling on street; throwing garbage on street. The roads are clean. Traffic laws are obeyed. There is hardly ever a traffic jam. Every railway/metro station has escalators. Singapore shows commitment to productivity.
   In India, there are hawkers in almost every street of city. Garbage lies on every street. The roads are dirty. Traffic laws are regularly violated. Traffic jams are common. Most railway stations have many staircases. India is unproductive.
6. Before boarding plane, in the waiting area, at Singapore airport many seats have two usb ports and one electrical socket. This means the passenger can charge two mobiles and a laptop at the same time. The electrical socket is international; so no adapter is needed even if the passenger has UK, USA or Indian plug. Singapore airport is one of best.
   In waiting area, at Indian airport, the seats don't have usb ports or electrical sockets. Some electrical sockets are present in some corner, but only Indian plug can fit into them, if they are working. Indian airports are one of the worst.
7. At Singapore airport, there is no frisking of passengers; the passengers don't have to remove their belt, shoes, etc. Yet Singapore crime rate is low.
   At Indian airport, there is physical frisking of passengers; the passengers have to remove their belt, shoes, etc. Yet Indian crime rate is high.
8. At Singapore Changi airport, the passenger gets high speed WiFi internet on multiple devices (i.e. multiple mobiles and laptops) simultaneously for 24 hours. Singapore shows its abundance.
   At Indian airport, the passenger gets low speed WiFi internet on single device (i.e. one mobile or laptop) for 45 minutes only. India shows its miserliness to every visitor as soon as he enters India.
9. Single use plastic bags, bottles, etc are convenient for people. So Singapore has set up an elaborate system, to dispose off these plastics, without causing environmental problems. Singapore cares about the convenience of its people.
   India has banned the use to single use plastic; hefty fines are imposed on defaulters. India has no system to dispose these plastics, without causing environmental harm. India doesn't care about the convenience of its people.

Hence, Singapore is a first-world developed country; and India is a third-world under-developed country.

2019 budget in India

A good budget

• Reduces taxes.
• Reduces regulations.
• Reduces subsidies.
• Reduces expenses by privatization; reduces deficit.

Some parts of this 2019 budget are good; some parts of the bad.

The good parts of the budget are:

• Reduction in custom duty for some defence equipment,
• GST process slightly simplified with one monthly return.
• Tax rate slightly reduced for small companies.
• Disinvestment. It will not benefit much because the government retains control over PSU

The bad parts of the budget are:

• Increase in customs duty on gold, books, TVs, ACs, CCTVs, etc.
• Additional tax on fuel.
• Large cash withdrawals to be taxed.
• Income tax on rich individuals increased
• New tax on share buybacks.
• Tax rebate for affordable housing will make housing costlier.
• Tax rebate on loans for EVs will cause disproportionate and unnecessary investment in EVs. This investment would have been better utilized elsewhere.
• PSU banks will be provided with Rs 70,000 crores. PSU are already bankrupt. Why waste more money on them?
• Instead of reducing borrowing, India will now borrow in foreign currency, rather than domestically.

Overall the budget does little. It is basically a lost opportunity to make any significant improvements.