2019 budget in India

A good budget

• Reduces taxes.
• Reduces regulations.
• Reduces subsidies.
• Reduces expenses by privatization; reduces deficit.

Some parts of this 2019 budget are good; some parts of the bad.

The good parts of the budget are:

• Reduction in custom duty for some defence equipment,
• GST process slightly simplified with one monthly return.
• Tax rate slightly reduced for small companies.
• Disinvestment. It will not benefit much because the government retains control over PSU

The bad parts of the budget are:

• Increase in customs duty on gold, books, TVs, ACs, CCTVs, etc.
• Additional tax on fuel.
• Large cash withdrawals to be taxed.
• Income tax on rich individuals increased
• New tax on share buybacks.
• Tax rebate for affordable housing will make housing costlier.
• Tax rebate on loans for EVs will cause disproportionate and unnecessary investment in EVs. This investment would have been better utilized elsewhere.
• PSU banks will be provided with Rs 70,000 crores. PSU are already bankrupt. Why waste more money on them?
• Instead of reducing borrowing, India will now borrow in foreign currency, rather than domestically.

Overall the budget does little. It is basically a lost opportunity to make any significant improvements.

Why NEP will fail?

Currently in India, education for child consists of

1. Junior Kg, Senior Kg in pre-school beginning from age of 4 years.
2. Standard 1 to 10 in school.
3. Standard 11 and 12 in college.

The NEP (New education policy) will consist of

1. Three years of pre-primary beginning from age of 3 years.
2. Grades 1 to 12.

NEP will fail for the same reason the existing education policy has failed. In the existing education policy, the government decides on the syllabus, decides the wages of teachers, decides the reservation among students & teachers, conducts exam, decides fees and awards degrees. The government is inefficient, corrupt and slow to change.

The only way education can be improved in India is to get the government out of the way. Private companies will provide education for profit. They will compete with each other on the basis of syllabus, teaching quality, infrastructure, fees, etc. The best value provider will succeed.

Government doesn't decide whether I purchase Nokia mobile or Samsung. There is competition among mobile makers. This ensures good quality and low prices. The same rule should be applicable for education. The only reason this rule is not applied to education is "Corruption". Many politicians and donors to political parties have colleges/schools. These charge huge fees for bad education. These institution will perish in free market.

What to expect in Modi's second term?

Based upon actions taken during Modi's first term, Modi is expected to take following actions during his second term:

• Keep inflation under control. Real estate will not be a good investment.
• Move towards cashless society. Cash withdrawals will be taxed or made cumbersome. Cash transactions will be viewed with suspicion.
• Make gold/silver buying/selling more difficult. Encourage people to give up their gold for loans/bonds.
• Put Hinduism and Nationalism in school syllabus and degrade them further.
• Criticizing government will be looked up as anti-national and pro-Pakistan. Freedom of speech for individuals and press will be curbed.
• Modi and Amit Shah will effectively rule India. The voice of all others (including BJP MLAs) will be stifled

During Modi's first term (2014 to 2019), Modi demonetized ₹1,000 and ₹500 currency notes. During Modi's second term (2019 to 2024), Modi can do following dramatic steps:

• Ban ₹2,000 note overnight. This time there will be no exchange. All ₹2,000 will be declared scrap.
• Confiscate gold in bank lockers.
• Confiscate bank deposits above a certain limit e.g. ₹10 lakhs.
• Devalue the Indian rupee.

The official reasons for above steps will be "helping the poor". The real reason will be much different.
To protect themselves from Modi's above disastrous steps, people can:

• Reduce ₹2,000 currency note at hand.
• Move gold from bank locker to private locker.
• Reduce the amount saved in bank deposits.
• Protect themselves from devaluation by purchasing physical assets.

The coming Indian elections

BJP has done election alliance with nearly 35 other parties like AIADMK, Shiv Sena, etc.
Congress has done election alliance with a large number of parties like NCP, RJD, etc.
Some parties (like are Trinamool, SP, BSP, AAP, etc) are strong within their state. They don't have any election alliance with BJP or Congress. These parties will join BJP alliance or Congress alliance, after the elections are over.

So the coming election will essentially a three way fight between BJP alliance, Congress alliance and a Third front.
In the coming election, neither the BJP alliance, nor the Congress alliance is expected to get a clean majority. So the Third front is expected to play the deciding role. This is bad for India because it means that

• No major decisions will be taken.
• The Third Front parties will extract their pound of flesh (bribes).
• Corruption will increase.

BJP is advertising the coming elections as Modi vs "who else?"; but these are just slogans (Chunavi Jumlas). BJP can't play the economy card in this election because De-monetization and GST have hurt the economy. So BJP is going to play the Nationalism card. I expect the tensions, with Pakistan, to increase as election date approaches near. We may even have one or more terror attacks, to ignite the fire of nationalism, which will help BJP to grab more votes.

India wants tensions with Pakistan to rise!

Army people are not great, they are just normal

Politicians want to create the impression that the died army men are great because it benefits them in many ways

• They get to spend more on security. This will lead to more kickbacks.
• They get to increase taxes under the guise of national security.
• Anyone opposing the politicians is branded as as traitor; so it suppresses mutiny.

Who joins the army? Does the normal army person has so great a love for the country, that he is willing to sacrifice his life? The answer is No.

• Most people who join the army are jobless.
• They don't have a good family business or family income.
• They are relatively uneducated or less educated.
• They know that most people who join the army come back alive i.e. more than 99%.
So army is the best job that they can find.

A person, who works a normal office job or business in private (not government) sector, does more for his country than most army man, because his taxes pay for the salary and equipment of army men.

Hardik Pandya's truth annoys hypocrites

Hardik Pandya said,

• I like to watch and observe how they (women in nightclub) move. I'm little from the Black side so I need to see how they move.
• When I lost my virginity, I came home and said, "I did it today”.
• At a party my parents asked me, "Which are your women?" I said, "This, this, this"; pointing out women and they were like proud of their son."
• When me and my team mates hit on the same woman, it is not upto the woman to decide whom she will date; It is about talent. The more talented one gets to take the woman.

These statements of Hardik have annoyed many women. Why? Hardik has not raped anyone. The women are voluntarily dating Hardik. So Hardik has not committed any crime.
Hardik statements exposes the low morals many women have today and therefore they are annoyed with him. Hardik is a womanizer, but he has the courage to speak the truth. The people criticizing Hardik don't have the courage to speak the truth; they are trying to hide their low morals by criticizing/punishing Hardik.