Sunday, 21 December 2014

Key teaching of PK movie

I watched the PK movie and liked it. The movie had an important teaching.
I discussed the movie with many of my friends. Unfortunately, even though they enjoyed the movie; almost everyone missed the key teaching of the movie.

In my opinion, the message of PK movie is that there are two Gods.

  1. God has created us. We know nothing about this God. Anything said about this God cannot be proven.
  2. Humans have created multiple Gods. These Gods typically punish us and demand sacrifices. These Gods are mostly cruel. These Gods exist solely for the interests of its mangers (so-called religious experts). The goal behind the creation of these Gods is domination of majority for the benefit of few.

The God that Hindus worship is wrong number. The Allah that Muslims bow before is wrong number. The God that demands confession for sins in Christianity is wrong number. The book worshipped by Sikhs is wrong number. Here, people worship out of fear of cruel God. The managers of these religions solely benefit from this fear.


Wednesday, 17 December 2014

RBI causes loss for Indians.

In Nov 2013, RBI allowed Indian banks to borrow US $34 billion for 3 years. Reference. The exchange rate was guaranteed by RBI. Interest rates for US $ is much lower than the interest rate for Indian rupee. So many banks took advantage of RBI's scheme.

Now Indian rupee is falling. This means that banks borrowed at cheap interest rates and the exchange rate loss will be borne by Indian taxpayers. So effectively RBI has transferred the wealth of Indian taxpayers to mostly private banks.

This policy was architected by the then finance minister P. Chidambaram and RBI Governer Rahuram Rajan. Chidambaram did not give an extension to the previous RBI governer Subbarao. It seems that Subbarao was not willing to co-operate with Chidambaram's corrupt policies.

This is just an example of how wealth is transferred to big corporates with the blessing of government. Of course, the big corporates are happy to give huge donations to political parties.


Wednesday, 10 December 2014

India's inflation rate is 11%

RBI has released the Money supply statistics till 5-Dec-2014. Reference.
One year ago, inflation in India was 14.9% (as per M3 money supply). Now, the inflation in India is 11.0%. This is a huge achievement for BJP government led by Modi. The Congress (UPA) government had consistent high inflation. In just 6 months, BJP (Modi) has reduced inflation by nearly 4%.


Saturday, 6 December 2014

Why is oil price dropping?

About 6 months ago, oil was over US $110 /bbl. Today oil is less US $69 /bbl. Why is the oil price falling? How long will this fall continue?

USA wants to overthrow Assad in Syria. Once Assad fall, Iran can also be attacked directly or covertly. Without Syria falling, Iran cannot be attached. USA wants Muslim Brotherhood or some other Muslim fundamentalist organization in Middle East.
Russia is supporting Assad. So USA has been failing to overthrow Assad. USA knows that unless Russia give up support to Assad, Syria will not fall.
Russia major export is oil. If oil prices drop, Russia will have economic problems; Russia will have difficulty in supporting military operations in Syria. Russian Rouble has fallen by a huge percentage in last few months because of falling oil prices.
I believe USA government is behind the dramatic fall in oil prices. It has been done to harm Russia

I believe USA will keep oil prices low i.e. below $ 70/bbl for next few months. But oil prices cannot be manipulated always. Sometime, during the next 2 years, oil will jump above $100/bbl.

In short term, speculators can short oil to make profile. Long term investors should be long oil to profit; but the ride will likely have many sharp turns.


Wednesday, 26 November 2014

India's inflation rate is 11.4%

RBI has released the Money supply statistics till 14-Nov-2014. Reference.
One year ago, inflation in India was 14.2% (as per M3 money supply). Now, the inflation in India is 11.4%. This is a huge achivement for BJP government led by Modi. The Congress (UPA) government had consistent high inflation. In just 6 months, BJP (Modi) has reduced inflation by nearly 3%.


Tuesday, 25 November 2014

India's Education Minister does not trust Science

India's education minister, Smriti Irani, visits an Astrologer. Reference.
This is bad news for India. Astrology is not proven in Science. So if Education Minister of a country is superstitious, what policies can we expect from her?

India is trying to make 2 changes to its education policies:

  1. Sanskrit will be in schools instead of foreign languages. Reference.
  2. Children should be taught in their mother-tongue. Reference.
Both the above policies are fundamentally flawed. The decision, of which language a child will study, is the right of child and its parents; the government should have no say in this issue. The government is violating the rights of its citizens by forcing Sanskrit and mother tongue languages.
If a child (with permission from his/her parents) wants to study Mandarin, what problem does India's education minister have with it? The parents are willing to bear the full expenses; they don't want any help from government.

Indian education is poor because

  • Course content is decided by government
  • Fees paid by students are mostly decided or controlled by government
  • Teachers' salary and promotion is determined by government
  • Exams are conducted by government controlled universities
India's education will improve when there is no government intervention of government in education. The competition among private school/colleges will cause the standard to rise. India's education minister should free education from government control, but instead she is increasing the government role in education.


Saturday, 22 November 2014

HyperInflation or Debt Default

The debt all over the world is increasing. How will this end?
I think that there are 2 options only.

Option 1 - Hyperinflation: Here the inflation will keep increasing; Governments/Bank will keep creating currency out of thin air. Inflation will keep rising 10%, 20%, 30%.... Ultimately inflation will become so high that all debts will be wiped out. The prices of good/service, at evening, will be much higher than the price of the same good/service, at morning. People will lose faith in currency. A barter system will come up. People will prefer to exchange good for good e.g. Pineapple for Water Melon or a few silver/gold pieces for a piece of land.

Option 2 - Debt Default: Inflation will keep rising and protests of people will rise. The governments will not be able to print any more currency. Interest rates will rise 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%.... to control the inflation. Stocks and Bonds will collapse in value. Unemployment will increase. Prices will start falling. People will be unable to repay their existing debt; they will default on their debt. Banks will go bankrupt. People with cash/gold/silver will become filthy rich (if their wealth is not confiscated by thieves or governments).

Conclusion: I think hyperinflation is not possible in western world e.g. USA, Germany, Canada, etc. Hyperinflation is possible in some third world countries e.g. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc.
So I expect the western world to default on its debt during the next few years. Gold and Silver, in your hands, will offer you protection against this crisis.