About 6 months ago, oil was over US $110 /bbl. Today oil is less US $69 /bbl. Why is the oil price falling? How long will this fall continue?
USA wants to overthrow Assad in Syria. Once Assad fall, Iran can also be attacked directly or covertly. Without Syria falling, Iran cannot be attached. USA wants Muslim Brotherhood or some other Muslim fundamentalist organization in Middle East.
Russia is supporting Assad. So USA has been failing to overthrow Assad. USA knows that unless Russia give up support to Assad, Syria will not fall.
Russia major export is oil. If oil prices drop, Russia will have economic problems; Russia will have difficulty in supporting military operations in Syria. Russian Rouble has fallen by a huge percentage in last few months because of falling oil prices.
I believe USA government is behind the dramatic fall in oil prices. It has been done to harm Russia
I believe USA will keep oil prices low i.e. below $ 70/bbl for next few months. But oil prices cannot be manipulated always. Sometime, during the next 2 years, oil will jump above $100/bbl.
In short term, speculators can short oil to make profile. Long term investors should be long oil to profit; but the ride will likely have many sharp turns.
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