Monday 3 August 2015

First Deflation, then hyper-inflation

Now (Aug 2015) we are seeing deflation. The proof is

  • Falling Copper prices. Copper is also known as Dr. Copper. It tells us the state of world economy. When consumption of copper falls, it s price falls. Falling consumption of goods is deflationary.
  • End of real-estate boom in China. China is the production hub of world. If Chinese are not buying factories and houses, then it idicates falling consumption (deflation) in the world.
During deflation stock, real-estate and commodities fall in value. So intelligent investors move to cash, bonds, gold, silver, etc in a deflation. During this period, the dollar will grow stronger. The deflation will last between 3 to 12 months.

Governments cannot tolerate deflation because tax revenues fall. Also most governments are heavily indebted. Defaltion makes paying back debts difficult. So governemnts will try every trick to counter deflation.
Governments will essentially increase money supply (by reducing interest rates). The tsunami of money supply ultimately ends deflation and causes high inflation. During hyper-inflation, cash and bonds loses in value. So intelligent investors move to stocks, real-estate, commodities, gold, silver and other hard assets.

Prepare youself for this roller-coaster ride.

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